NAB cuts Australia capital-city house price forecast, sees 8% fall in 2026
NAB lowered its forecast for Australia’s eight-capital housing market, now expecting prices to fall 8% in 2026, compared with its prior forecast of a 6% decline. Combined-capital dwelling prices fell 1.2% in September, their sixth consecutive monthly drop, and stood 6.4% below the March peak.
1. Forecast cut
NAB cut its 2026 forecast for Australia’s eight-capital housing market, penciling in an 8% decline, up from a prior forecast of a 6% fall.
2. Prices and sales
Combined-capital dwelling prices fell 1.2% in September, the sixth straight monthly fall, leaving prices 6.4% below their March peak. Sydney was down 8.6% from its peak and Melbourne 7.2%; their September declines were 1.4% and 0.7%, respectively. Unit prices fell 0.8% in September, while mid-sized capitals fell 1% to 1.5%; Brisbane was 5.4% below its peak. Sales volumes slowed, and median days on market rose to 41, the highest since late 2020.
