Since 2021 Intel’s quarterly revenue has fallen by roughly 33%, driven primarily by Apple’s transition to in-house silicon. In Q4 2025 Intel reported revenue down 4.1% year-over-year, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of top-line contraction. Operating margins remain in negative territory, with overhead and R&D costs outpacing gross profits. The company acknowledged further margin compression in its recent guidance, citing ongoing inefficiencies in legacy fabs and higher unit costs associated with its 14nm and 10nm lines.

Intel has secured approximately $8.9 billion in U.S. government incentives through the CHIPS Act to support construction of new fabs in Ohio and Arizona. Total planned capital expenditures for 2026 exceed $25 billion, up from $18 billion in 2024, as the company races to regain process-technology parity. However, key capacity expansions originally slated for late 2025 have slipped into 2027, raising investor concerns over delayed return on investment and extended periods of underutilized assets.

Management highlighted AI workloads and potential foundry relationships—particularly with Nvidia and Microsoft—as critical catalysts for long-term recovery. Intel’s Aurora 18A process, expected to yield manufacturing efficiencies in H2 2026, is projected to improve margins by 150–200 basis points once ramped. The company is targeting data-center GPU production for external customers, with pilot volumes scheduled for Q3 2026. Analysts estimate that a successful foundry pivot could drive wafer-fab revenue growth of 10–15% annually through 2028.