Intel reported fourth-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by approximately $300 million. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.15, double the $0.08 forecast. For the first quarter, management guided to revenue in a range of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion, with adjusted EPS expected to break even versus a street forecast of $0.05. The midpoint of guidance implies a sequential revenue decline of nearly 11% from Q4 and falls shy of analyst projections by roughly $300 million.

Shares plunged more than 15% following the earnings release, reversing a rally that had lifted the stock more than 100% year-over-year and delivered a 24% gain so far in 2026. Technical measures showed short-term overstretch, with the 14-day RSI reaching 82.3—well into overbought territory. Options activity spiked, with 757,000 calls and 590,000 puts exchanged in one day—roughly six times typical daily volume—highlighting elevated hedging and directional bets.

CFO David Zinsner warned that seasonal demand will outstrip current supply in Q1, with available capacity at its lowest point before improving in Q2. Persistent wafer shortages and below-target production yields have begun to erode cloud infrastructure share and pressure gross margins, which contracted year-over-year. Jefferies reiterated a Hold rating, citing soft guidance on supply constraints and further margin headwinds as key execution risks.

Intel’s turnaround is underpinned by strategic investments from the U.S. government, SoftBank and a $5 billion equity infusion from Nvidia. The Commerce Department’s 278 million-share stake, purchased through the end of last year, suffered a $2.4 billion unrealized loss on the stock’s drop. Management is targeting leadership in 2 nm-equivalent process technologies and rapid expansion in AI-enabled PCs, but near-term execution will be critical to justify valuation multiples and deliver on market share objectives.