Intel’s Custom ASIC Business Tops $1B Run Rate After 50% Growth

INTCINTC

Intel’s custom ASIC business grew over 50% in 2025 to surpass a $1 billion run rate, fueled by AI networking chip demand and deals with Ericsson and AWS on Intel 18A. The Central Engineering Group aims to capture part of a $100 billion market by offering end-to-end design, IP and foundry services.

1. Q4 Performance and Segment Dynamics

Intel Corporation exceeded consensus estimates in its fourth quarter, driven by a 15% sequential increase in Data Center and AI (DCAI) revenue. DCAI sales surged to represent over 40% of total company revenue, reflecting robust demand for Xeon processors and AI accelerators. However, Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue declined by 6% year-over-year due to persistent supply constraints in the 14-and-10-nanometer product lines. Management disclosed that wafer output on advanced nodes fell short of plan by approximately 10%, with remediation efforts expected to restore full capacity by the second quarter.

2. Soft Q1 Guidance and Investor Reaction

For the first quarter, Intel guided to revenue of $12.1 billion and gross margin of 34.5%, both below the average sell-side forecast. The shortfall reflects ongoing yield challenges in Intel 4 and Intel 3 technologies, which have delayed ramp of Core Ultra Series 3 and Xeon next-generation CPUs. Following the announcement, institutional investors reduced their exposure by an estimated $1.2 billion, driving the shares sharply lower and highlighting sensitivity to near-term execution risks.

3. Foundry Momentum and Strategic Roadmap

During the quarter, Intel Foundry Services released its lead vehicle, Panther Lake, on the 18A node and disclosed three reported customer engagements for custom ASICs targeting networking AI workloads. Management reaffirmed plans to achieve design wins representing $5 billion in annualized external foundry revenue by 2028. Capital expenditures remain elevated at $24 billion for 2026, funding the build-out of two new fabs scheduled to begin high-volume manufacturing in the latter half of 2027.

Sources

SFSFS
+15 more