Iran Strait Mines Drive Crude Rally; EIA Lifts 2027 Output Forecast by 220,000 b/d
Crude futures rose sharply after US intelligence indicated Iran laid several dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz and US forces destroyed 10 idle mine-laying boats, tightening supply risk. Meanwhile, the EIA lifted its 2027 US crude output forecast by 220,000 b/d to 13.83 million b/d and raised 2026 gasoline price outlook to $3.34/gal.
1. Strait of Hormuz Mine Deployment
Crude futures reversed higher after intelligence reports revealed Iran had deployed several dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor carrying about one-fifth of global crude flows. US forces subsequently hit and destroyed 10 inactive mine-laying vessels, underscoring the heightened risk to tanker movements and near-term supply disruption.
2. EIA Revises Long-Term US Production Outlook
The Energy Information Administration increased its 2027 US crude production forecast to 13.83 million barrels per day, up by 220,000 barrels from its February projection, reflecting delayed investment and drilling responses to recent price gains. The agency also raised its average 2026 retail gasoline price forecast to $3.34 per gallon after benchmarks spiked near $120 a barrel.