Jefferies Holds $910 Target as Meta Posts 26% Q3 Revenue Growth
Meta’s Q3 revenue climbed 26% YoY to $51.2B as ad impressions rose 14%, while Q3 capex reached $19.4B and 2025 capex guidance was raised to $70–72B. The company plans to roll out ads on Threads to monetize 400M users, and Jefferies reiterated a Buy rating with a $910 price target.
1. Mega-Cap Rotation Fuels Meta’s Stock Resilience
Despite broader market headwinds—most notably Intel’s downbeat supply-chain outlook that dragged the Dow down 0.58% on January 23—investors rotated into high-quality growth names, lifting Meta shares by 1.77% that day. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.28%, driven in part by a more than 5% jump in cybersecurity names and nearly 1.6% in Nvidia, underscoring an AI-led rally that continues to underpin Meta’s equity performance.
2. Robust Third-Quarter Growth Amid AI Buildout
In Q3 2025, Meta reported revenue of $51.2 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, fueled by a 14% rise in ad impressions and a 10% increase in average price per ad across its apps. Daily active users reached 3.54 billion, up 8%, while operating income stood at $20.5 billion. However, rising infrastructure costs for AI computing led to a 32% jump in total costs and expenses, compressing operating margin to 40% from 43% a year earlier.
3. Heavy CapEx Push and 2026 Outlook
Meta’s third-quarter capital expenditures hit $19.4 billion, reflecting massive investment in data centers and AI-capable cloud computing. Management guided 2025 full-year CapEx to $70 billion–$72 billion and warned that 2026 spending growth will outpace 2025, with both infrastructure and R&D outlays rising “notably” to support new AI-powered products and underlying platform enhancements.
4. Valuation Gap and Analyst Consensus Ahead of Q4
Trading around 21 times forward earnings—even after a recent pullback—the stock trades at a steep discount to its historical multiples and to peers with similar AI exposure. Analysts have set an average price target implying over 40% upside, citing sustained ad-revenue momentum, strong user engagement metrics, and the potential for improved monetization from AI-driven features. Meta reports Q4 results in late January, where investors will focus on revenue growth guidance, capital-spending trajectory, and profitability trends in its Reality Labs segment.