Jefferies Sees $1.205B Q1 Revenue, $136M EBITDA for Roku
Jefferies forecasts Roku’s Q1 revenue at $1.205 billion, topping both consensus and company guidance, with platform revenue up 22% to $1.075 billion driven by 19% ad and 25% subscription growth. Adjusted EBITDA is expected at $136 million on a 44.2% gross margin, and Roku targets $1 billion free cash flow by 2028.
1. Q1 Revenue and EBITDA Projections
Jefferies models Roku’s Q1 revenue at $1.205 billion, slightly above consensus and company guidance, with adjusted EBITDA forecast at $136 million on a 44.2% gross margin.
2. Platform Revenue Breakdown
Platform revenue is projected to rise 22% year-over-year to $1.075 billion, driven by a 19% increase in advertising to $577 million and 25% growth in subscriptions to $499 million, while device sales are expected to fall 7% to $130 million.
3. Price Target and Analyst Rating
The firm maintains an Outperform rating and a $140 price target, signaling confidence in Roku’s ability to sustain growth beyond current consensus.
4. Full-Year Guidance and Cash Flow Outlook
Roku’s 2026 targets of $5.5 billion in revenue and $635 million in adjusted EBITDA remain intact, with a path to $1 billion in free cash flow by 2028 supported by net operating loss shields.