Jefferies Sees 31% Shipment Drop; Apple Unveils $599 iPhone 17e and M4 iPad Air

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Jefferies forecasts a 31% decline in global smartphone shipments to 867 million units in 2026 as memory costs surge up to 360% YoY for NAND, prompting a projected 5 ppt share gain for Apple. Apple also unveiled its entry-level iPhone 17e priced at $599 with 256 GB storage and new M4-powered iPad Air models offering up to 30% faster performance.

1. Jefferies Forecasts Shipment Decline

Jefferies now expects 2026 global smartphone shipments to fall 31% to 867 million units, down from a prior estimate of a 12% drop. The firm cites skyrocketing memory costs—mobile DRAM up 151% YoY and NAND up 360% YoY—as the primary driver, and anticipates Apple will capture an additional 5 ppt market share thanks to its less price-sensitive customer base.

2. iPhone 17e Launch

Apple introduced the iPhone 17e at a $599 starting price, equipped with 256 GB of storage—double last year’s entry-level capacity—and powered by the A19 processor with one fewer GPU core than the iPhone 17. The device features a 6.1-inch display, single rear camera, up to 26 hours of battery life, and 50% charge in 30 minutes, offering a lower-cost option in its flagship lineup.

3. New M4 iPad Air Models

The latest iPad Air models debut the M4 chip, delivering up to 30% faster performance over the M3 version and 2.3× the speed of the M1 generation. Available at $599 for an 11-inch screen and $799 for a 13-inch variant, both include up to 12 GB RAM, Apple's N1 and C1X modem chips, and Center Stage front cameras tailored for video conferencing and AI applications.

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