Jefferies Sees Metals Rally from Gulf Disruption, Cuts Centrica EPS 17%
Jefferies forecasts metals and mining rally, citing Gulf route disruption affecting 9% of aluminium and 3% of iron ore, plus higher energy costs and inflation hedges. It cut Centrica to hold after a 10% share gain, raised its target to 210p and trimmed 2026 EPS 17% on £100m interest costs.
1. Bullish Metals and Mining Outlook
Jefferies forecasts metals and mining stocks to keep rallying as Middle East tensions threaten Strait of Hormuz shipments accounting for 9% of global aluminium and Gulf output representing 3% of iron ore production. The firm warns that rising energy costs, supply-chain pressures and inflation hedges will support higher commodity prices.
2. Centrica Rating Cut and Forecast Revisions
The bank cut Centrica’s rating from buy to hold after shares gained over 10%, lifted its price target to 210p and slashed its 2026 EPS estimate by 17% on £100m of extra interest costs. Jefferies cited a lack of near-term growth catalysts, unallocated capital in the 2026–30 investment plan and limited share buyback prospects as valuation headwinds.