J.P. Morgan Upholds Broadcom’s 2028 TPU v9 Plan, Exposes Google Chip Lag
J.P. Morgan maintains Broadcom's TPU v9 2nm roadmap for 2028 and underscores a five-year TPU supply pact through v11, spotlighting potential delays in Google's in-house AI chip ambitions. Alphabet's Waymo continues scaling its robotaxi network ahead of Tesla's Optimus launch, underscoring competitive AI investments.
1. J.P. Morgan Affirms Broadcom’s TPU v9 Schedule
Broadcom’s next-generation TPU v9 program on a 2-nanometer process remains on track for a 2028 volume ramp, with IP design work initiated in H1 2025 and system-on-chip design starting late last year. Its current TPU v8i 3-nanometer variant qualified by mid-2025 and is slated to begin production scaling this quarter.
2. Google’s In-House AI Chip Timeline
Google’s internal TPU team began v9 design but trails Broadcom’s progress, with analysts projecting that matching advanced chip and packaging capabilities may take several more years. The gap underscores challenges for Google to fully transition AI workloads onto proprietary silicon.
3. Five-Year TPU Roadmap Agreement
A five-year agreement signed in March secures Broadcom’s TPU roadmap through v11 and includes annual revenue growth commitments from Google through 2031. Additional manufacturing capacity in Singapore and expanded packaging capabilities are slated to come online by 2028 to support the roadmap.
4. Waymo Accelerates Robotaxi Deployment
Alphabet’s Waymo continues to expand its commercial robotaxi fleet across multiple U.S. markets, outpacing Tesla’s Optimus initiative, which has yet to deploy any units for useful work. Optimus low-volume production is slated to begin this summer at Fremont, but Musk cautions the ramp rate remains unpredictable given its 10,000 unique parts design.
