JPMorgan Predicts V-Shaped Recovery, Urges Buying Dips Over 3–12 Months
JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka forecasts a V-shaped recovery over a three-to-twelve month horizon and urges investors to buy market pullbacks based on oversold signals triggered by geopolitical volatility. He highlights improving S&P 500 earnings estimates, recommends long-duration positions and expects emerging markets, small caps and value to outperform.
1. Buy-the-Dip Thesis
Mislav Matejka argues renewed market weakness—driven by geopolitical uncertainty—creates oversold conditions that signal an opportune entry for investors with a three-to-twelve month time horizon.
2. Macro Backdrop Differences
The current environment features lower inflation pressure, stronger corporate pricing power, higher real rates and robust labor markets compared to 2022, justifying a bias toward long-duration assets regardless of conflict evolution.
3. Asset Allocation Outlook
JPMorgan sees S&P 500 earnings estimates climbing, expects central banks to tolerate a 1.5 percentage point inflation uptick, and forecasts international stocks, emerging markets, small caps and value will resume outperforming in the second half of the year.