JPMorgan raises long-term annual return forecast for 60/40 portfolio to 7.0%

JPMorgan’s 2027 outlook projects 7% annual returns for a U.S. dollar 60/40 stock-bond portfolio over 10 to 15 years. A 30% allocation to diversified alternatives raises the projected return to 7.5% and the Sharpe ratio by 21% versus a simple 60/40 portfolio, as higher stock-bond correlations increase diversification needs. The outlook raises U.S. large-cap equity return forecasts by 80 basis points to 7.5%, citing technology adoption and productivity gains, and puts global aggregate bond returns at 5.3%, their highest forecast in two decades, as higher real yields lift returns.