JPMorgan Urges Buy-the-Dip Strategy as Oil Spikes, S&P Earnings Seen +12%

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JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka recommends buying the dip on US-Iran escalation, noting solid fundamentals and completed tech sector repricing despite Brent crude spiking after Ayatollah Khamenei’s death. Contrasting views include a 12% year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth forecast to $310 by Gary Black and El-Erian’s stagflation warning.

1. Buy-the-Dip Recommendation

JPMorgan’s chief macro strategist Mislav Matejka advises clients to use short-term market weakness triggered by US-Iran tensions to add equity positions, arguing that corporate earnings remain healthy and tech valuations have already adjusted, and expecting the recent Brent crude surge to reverse once geopolitical pressures subside.

2. S&P Earnings Growth Projection

Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, views current volatility and elevated oil prices as entry points for equities, forecasting S&P 500 earnings to climb 12% year-over-year to $310 by end-2026, reflecting confidence in sustained profit growth despite near-term energy price headwinds.

3. Stagflationary Risks

Mohamed El-Erian cautions that a protracted or widening Middle East conflict could spark stagflation, stressing that longer duration and broader escalation would amplify global inflationary pressures and constrain Federal Reserve policy flexibility, potentially undermining economic growth and equity returns.

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