Judge Allows Consumer Antitrust Suit Over Google's Default Search Deals to Proceed

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U.S. District Judge Rita F. Lin denied Google's motion to dismiss a consumer class-action accusing it of monopolizing search through exclusive default agreements with device and browser makers under Sherman Act Section 2. The decision preserves federal and California unfair-competition claims over default-search payments that steer traffic and ad revenue.

1. Alphabet’s Q4 2025 Earnings Outlook and Growth Drivers

Alphabet is poised for another quarter of robust top-line growth, with consensus forecasts calling for roughly 15.5% year-over-year revenue expansion to about $111.4 billion and 23% EPS growth to $2.64. Google Cloud remains a key growth engine, having delivered 34% year-over-year revenue gains in Q3 2025 and expanding operating margins from 17% to 24%. Search and YouTube advertising revenues both achieved mid-teens growth in Q3, underscoring the resilience of core ad businesses even as AI integration accelerates across Google services.

2. Recent Market Valuation and Share Price Dynamics

Just last week, Alphabet became only the second company ever to surpass a $4 trillion market capitalization. Over the past seven days, however, shares have retraced by approximately 3.5%, finding near-term technical support in the low-$320 range. This pullback reflects modest profit taking after record highs and offers investors an opportunity to consider accumulating exposure before the February earnings release.

3. Pershing Square’s Stake and Bill Ackman’s Gains

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management holds 6.32 million Class C shares and 4.84 million Class A shares following a 10% trim of its Class A position in Q3 2025. Those stakes, valued at about $3.69 billion at recent levels, have appreciated by roughly $2.04 billion since September 30, driven by a 65% gain in Alphabet’s shares during 2025. Pershing Square’s outsized return demonstrates continued confidence from a major activist investor in Alphabet’s long-term prospects.

4. Ongoing Antitrust Litigation and Regulatory Risks

A federal judge in California recently allowed a consumer class-action antitrust lawsuit against Alphabet to move forward under Section 2 of the Sherman Act, alleging that exclusive-default search agreements with device makers and browser developers foreclose competition. Plaintiffs argue that preset default status on mobile devices and browsers captures traffic, advertising demand and valuable data. Google must now defend its distribution partnerships and may face significant remedies if the court ultimately rules against these practices.

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