Judo Capital expects November RBA rate hike as inflation pressures persist
TLT•Judo Capital expects the RBA to raise rates on November 3, 2026, if September-quarter trimmed mean inflation meets forecasts of 1%, above the RBA’s 0.8% projection. Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike rose to roughly 67% from 22%.
1. Rate outlook
The RBA is expected to raise rates on November 3, 2026, if September-quarter inflation meets forecasts. Quarterly trimmed mean inflation is forecast at 1%, above the RBA’s 0.8% projection, with data due October 28. Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point November hike rose to roughly 67% from 22%, and the cash rate is priced to peak at 4.87% by May 2027.
2. Inflation pressures
Brent closed Friday at US$116.72 a barrel, roughly 45% above the RBA’s year-end assumption, increasing inflation risks. Sydney home prices are approaching a 10% decline from February’s peak, while preliminary auction clearance is below 50%.
