K-shaped housing market
XHB•TD Cowen’s macro research group describes the U.S. housing market as stagnant, with activity increasingly concentrated among higher-income households and higher-priced home sales outperforming the broader market.
1. Uneven housing activity
TD Cowen’s macro research group, led by U.S. economist Eli Nir, said high interest rates and poor affordability are limiting both housing supply and demand. The group said lower-income households have lost ground in home ownership since 2020, while poor home-buying conditions remain a concern across income groups.
2. Renovations hold up
Although larger projects are on hold, the group said home-improvement demand is holding up and high-end furniture spending is a bright spot. It expects mortgage rates eventually to ease, but settle at a still-high level, and does not expect much growth in the overall housing market.
