Kinder Morgan Reports 22% EPS Growth and $10B Project Backlog in Q4

KMIKMI

Kinder Morgan closed 2025 with record Q4 adjusted EBITDA up 10% and adjusted EPS rising 22% year-over-year, driven by strong natural gas demand. The company’s project backlog grew by $650 million to $10 billion and it forecasts LNG feed gas demand of 19.8 Bcf/d in 2026.

1. Scotiabank Price Target and Recent Trading Range

On January 23, 2026, Scotiabank set a 12-month price target of $30 for Kinder Morgan, implying roughly 1.0% upside from recent levels. At the time of the revision, the stock was trading near $29.70, although it has since dipped slightly to around $29.50, representing a 0.7% decline on the day. Over the past 12 months, the shares have oscillated between a low of $23.94 and a high of $30.56, reflecting both sector volatility and company-specific developments. Trading volume for the most recent session reached approximately 6.25 million shares, indicating robust investor interest in this large-cap energy infrastructure name with a market capitalization near $65.6 billion.

2. Impact of Natural Gas Price Surge on Midstream Dynamics

Natural gas futures at Henry Hub soared above $5 per MMBtu for the first time since 2008, marking a roughly 60% weekly gain—the largest rally on record. This spike was driven by an Arctic cold front sweeping across 40 states, triggering elevated heating demand and warnings of heavy snow and ice. While midstream operators generally benefit from higher commodity prices through increased throughput and fee-based contracts, Kinder Morgan’s share price has not fully reflected this commodity rally. Investors remain focused on the intersection of strong demand, potential production freeze-offs that could shave up to 15 Bcf/d of output, and the company’s take-or-pay contract structure that underpins stable cash flows even when spot prices surge.

3. Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance

In its Q4 earnings release, Kinder Morgan reported record quarterly and full-year results. Fourth-quarter net income attributable to shareholders reached $996 million, a 49% increase year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA rose 10% versus Q4 2024. Adjusted EPS climbed 22% to $0.45, driven by contributions from recent expansion projects and the Outrigger acquisition. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA set an all-time record, exceeding $8.4 billion and outpacing the company’s 4% growth target by achieving 6% growth. Adjusted EPS for 2025 also hit a new high, growing 13% over 2024. These results were underpinned by transport volume gains of 9% and gathering volume increases of 19%, led by strong performance on Gulf Coast and Haynesville assets.

4. Backlog Growth, Capital Allocation and Balance Sheet Strength

Management reported that the project backlog expanded by $650 million during Q4 to a total of $10 billion, fueled by new long-term shipper contracts on Florida Gas Transmission and other Gulf Coast initiatives. The company added over $900 million of new sanctioned projects while placing $265 million into service. Net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA improved to 3.8x, down from 3.9x the prior quarter, reflecting disciplined capital spending of roughly $3.15 billion in growth expenditures and $650 million on the Outrigger acquisition, funded in part by $380 million of divestiture proceeds. Credit metrics earned upgrades from major rating agencies, and the Board approved a 2% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.2925 per share, supporting an annualized yield near 4% while leaving leverage well within the 3.5x–4.5x target range.

Sources

DSFFB
+1 more