Like the US, Iran has squandered good options to end the war
USO•Iran faces a choice between escalating attacks, seeking a peace deal that may require nuclear-program compromises, or continuing the stalemate. It has not exported crude since August, while at least 10 vessels were hit in the Strait of Hormuz in the first 10 days of November.
1. Three difficult choices
Iran’s early strategic success has given way to a failure to seize opportunities for a lasting peace deal, the columnist writes. Tehran can escalate by attacking Gulf energy infrastructure, seek a deal with the US, or continue the current stalemate. Escalation could bring a major response from the US and Israel and damage Iran’s own infrastructure.
2. Nuclear oversight and sanctions
A sustainable deal may become more likely if Iran gives up some demands, the columnist writes. Allowing independent inspections and oversight of its nuclear program is presented as a possible compromise; in exchange, Iran could seek sanctions relief on crude exports.
3. Oil flows remain constrained
At least 10 vessels were hit in the first 10 days of November, following 37 attacks in October. Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz are almost back to pre-war levels, but LNG and refined-product shipments remain constrained, and freight and insurance costs are about 10 times pre-war levels. Brent crude futures fell about 22% in two weeks to $92.46 a barrel on Wednesday, while Singapore gasoil was down 11% to $149.54 a barrel and remained 64% above its February 27 level. Iran has not exported crude since August, compared with an average of 1.73 million barrels per day in the three months before the conflict; China was the only buyer in October, importing 228,000 barrels per day.
