Lilly's Mounjaro, Zepbound sales surge, widening lead over Novo Nordisk

Lilly now expects revenue of $85 billion to $87 billion, up from its previous forecast of $82 billion to $85 billion. J.P. Morgan analysts wrote in a note that Lilly remained their top pick with further upside to Street numbers over the next several years. The revised forecast comes a day after Novo also raised its full-year profit and sales forecasts, counting on its oral pill to help claw back lost ground from Lilly in the lucrative market. Sales of Foundayo, Lilly's newly launched once-daily obesity pill, came in at $98 million, falling short of analysts' average expectation of $105.6 million. Lilly slightly trimmed the top end of its full-year profit forecast, citing charges related to business activity in the quarter. It now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of $35.50 to $36.50, from its prior view of $35.50 to $37. Analysts are estimating a profit of $34.20 per share. Adjusted earnings came in at $8.38 per share for the second quarter, sailing past analysts' average estimate of $6.01, according to data compiled by LSEG. Sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro rose 91% to $9.94 billion, beating analysts' estimates, while obesity drug Zepbound brought in $4.93 billion, compared with expectations of $4.73 billion. The two drugs accounted for 64.7% of Lilly's revenue in the latest reported quarter. Strong demand lifted sales volumes across global markets, with Mounjaro driving growth outside the United States and both Mounjaro and Zepbound boosting U.S. sales, although lower realized prices partly offset those gains, Lilly said. Mounjaro is the brand name used for both weight loss and diabetes outside the U.S. By comparison, Novo's diabetes and obesity portfolio generated nearly 59.3 billion Danish crowns ($9.16 billion) in quarterly sales, led by Ozempic and Wegovy injections. The U.S. government last month launched a pilot program allowing Americans to access obesity medicines through the Medicare program for people aged 65 and older or with disabilities that will offer the medications for a monthly co-pay of $50. The expanded Medicare access should support U.S. growth, with about 60% to 70% of those in the program expected to be patients new to the drugs, said Kevin Gade, chief operating officer at Lilly investor Bahl & Gaynor. The market continues to underappreciate the strength of Mounjaro demand outside the U.S. and its longer-term international growth potential, he added. Lilly and Novo dominate the lucrative obesity market. Lilly surpassed a $1 trillion valuation last year, while Novo's newly launched Wegovy pill is quickly gaining traction in its U.S. rollout. The global market for obesity drugs reached $66 billion in 2025, according to data firm IQVIA. Analysts expect it to hit over $100 billion annually by 2030 in the U.S. alone. Citi analysts said the outlook for the remainder of the year would depend on volume growth, driven by expanded Medicare access and sustained international demand for Mounjaro. Sales of Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound injectable weight-loss and diabetes drugs soared during the second quarter, easily beating Wall Street estimates and widening the gap with Danish rival Novo Nordisk. The trillion-dollar company also posted better-than-expected quarterly results and raised its full-year revenue forecast, and its shares jumped over 5% in early trading. The strong results are likely to reassure investors that demand for Lilly's GLP-1 treatments remains resilient despite pricing pressure and intensifying competition from Novo, which launched an oral version of its Wegovy weight-loss drug in the U.S. earlier this year.

Lilly's Mounjaro, Zepbound sales surge, widening lead over Novo Nordisk

Updated outlook and earnings

Mounjaro and Zepbound drive revenue

Medicare pilot and investor commentary

Quarterly sales surge and market reaction

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