Lithium Demand May Reach 13.2M Tons by 2050, $276B Needed for Net-Zero
Global lithium demand could exceed 13.2 million tons by 2050 under a net-zero pathway, more than double base-case forecasts. Without $104–$276 billion in new investments, structural supply deficits could arise between 2028 and 2037 across all energy transition scenarios.
1. Demand Forecasts
Global lithium demand spans 5.6 to 13.2 million tons by 2050 across four modeled energy transition pathways, from delayed uptake to a rapid net-zero push.
2. Supply Deficit Timelines
Even committed projects struggle to maintain balance beyond the mid-2030s, with deficits emerging by 2028 in the net-zero case, around 2029 under country pledges and by 2037 under a delayed transition.
3. Investment Requirements by Scenario
Meeting demand requires $104 billion under a delayed transition, $114 billion in a base case, $236 billion under country pledges and $276 billion in a net-zero pathway, highlighting a $100–275 billion capital call.
4. EVs and Storage Drivers
Electric vehicles account for 72–80% of lithium consumption growth, while energy storage systems provide a significant secondary demand source that will intensify market tightness.