Live Markets-A grain breakout may be taking root

Commodities have rallied sharply this year, with the FTSE/Core Commodity CRB Total Return Index .TRCCRBTR posting a record closing high last Friday. The index is now up 38% year to date.

While crude CLc1 continues to simmer amid Middle East tensions and gold XAU= is attracting fresh attention after rallying to multi-month highs, strength is also emerging in the grain complex.

A price-weighted composite of CBoT corn, soybean and wheat futures is up 20% this year.

The broader picture is also becoming more constructive. After losing more than half its value between its 2022 peak and its January 2026 low, the grain ETF composite has been carving out a choppy uptrend.

Technical indicators are reinforcing that recovery. On the monthly chart, the MACD generated a bullish crossover last October after an extended decline. The indicator has improved every month since and is now approaching the zero line, a level that, if crossed, would point to strengthening upside momentum.

The next hurdle for the composite could prove significant.

The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022-2026 decline comes in at $73.29. A decisive break above that level, particularly if the MACD moves into positive territory, would strengthen the case for a more durable uptrend. Beyond that, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels come in at $82.43 and $89.82.

On the downside, a break below the early August low of $65.89 would suggest the rally is losing steam and could put the 2026 lows between $61.87 and $58.47 back in play.

Meanwhile, a price-weighted composite of three grain ETFs, the Teucrium Corn Fund CORN.K, the Teucrium Soybean Fund SOYB.K and the Teucrium Wheat Fund WEAT.K, rose to $71.33 on Monday, its highest level since June 2024, before easing back to close at $70.64. The ETF composite is up 19% year to date.