LIVE MARKETS-Fed watch: Odds favor action

Oil prices keep climbing, and growing government debt is pushing up yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries. Those moves reflect persistent inflation pressures, both in headline and core readings, and have reinforced expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise interest rates at its September 15 to 16 meeting.

In a note published Monday, CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall said Fed funds futures are pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike when policymakers wrap up this week's meeting. Futures markets also suggest roughly a 75% probability of another rate increase before year-end.

If the Fed does move this week, Stovall notes it would be consistent with history. Eight of the nine Federal Reserve chairs appointed since World War Two, including all six over the past 50 years, kicked off their tenure with a rate hike as their first major policy move.

And for those wondering whether the Fed would hesitate with midterm elections approaching, Stovall points to history there as well. Since 1990, the FOMC has changed the federal funds rate five times within about two and a half months of elections, with moves coming in August, September, twice in October and even November.

Main US indexes decline, but off lows; Nasdaq now off ~0.4%

Industrials is weakest S&P 500 sector; comm svcs leads gainers

Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.4%

Dollar rallies ~0.5%; bitcoin gains >1%; US crude advances >3.5%; gold down >1%

US 10-year Treasury yield hits 5.01%, highest since October 2023, then reverses down to ~4.95%