Lucid shares tumble 65% to record low after Q3 delivery miss and Morgan Stanley downgrade

LCIDLCID

Lucid Group shares fell 65% in 2025 versus the S&P’s 17% gain after Q3 deliveries totaled just 4,078 vehicles on $337 million revenue and a $1 billion loss. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight, cut its price target from $30 to $10 and shares hit a record low of $10.45.

1. Steep Stock Decline and Industry Headwinds

Lucid’s equity value plunged by roughly two thirds over the past year while the broader market climbed by nearly a fifth, underscoring investor skepticism toward U.S. EV startups. The company underperformed peers after the federal tax incentive was eliminated late last year, and legacy automakers took multi-billion-dollar write-downs on their own EV programs. High-profile commentary from leading market commentators reinforced bearish sentiment, and Lucid’s valuation briefly rivaled its cash reserves before sliding to multi-year lows.

2. Production, Deliveries and Financial Performance

In the third quarter, Lucid manufactured approximately 3,900 vehicles but delivered just over 4,000, leaving inventory at close to 3,900 units. Revenue for the period totaled $337 million, while operating losses exceeded $1 billion, translating to an average loss of more than $240,000 per unit delivered. At this pace, break-even would require a sixfold increase in sales without materially higher costs, a challenge given that cumulative deliveries through mid-year stood under 32,000 vehicles against an initial annual target of half a million.

3. Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook

To bolster capacity and diversify production, Lucid is acquiring manufacturing assets from a bankrupt EV truck maker and has restructured its leadership, appointing its COO as interim CEO. The company launched its flagship Gravity SUV late last year and achieved a peak weekly output of 1,000 vehicles in December. Collaborations include a robotaxi deployment with a leading ride-hailing firm and a technology partnership with a major AI chipmaker. However, analysts remain cautious due to shrinking federal incentives, persistent cash burn running into billions annually, and uncertainty over continued support from its sovereign-wealth-fund backer.

Sources

22