JPMorgan Chase’s annual Business Leaders Outlook survey of 2,471 U.S. small and midsize companies finds that 71% of middle market executives are optimistic about their own company’s prospects at the start of 2026, nearly matching last January’s 75% level. Small business owners report similarly strong sentiment, with 74% optimistic about their outlook—comparable to readings above 75% throughout 2024 and 2025. More than 60% of small firms say they feel more positive now than at any point in the past five years. These figures highlight broad confidence despite persistent cost pressures and geopolitical headwinds in the prior year.

Middle market companies, defined here as those with annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million, plan aggressive expansion: 73% expect revenue increases in 2026 (up from 50% in June 2025), and 48% intend to add headcount (versus 37% mid-year). Firms cite economic uncertainty (49%), revenue growth (33%), and labor and tariff concerns (31% each) as their top risks, yet 53% aim to enter new domestic or international markets, 58% will launch new products or services, and 49% will pursue strategic partnerships or minority investments. Melissa Smith, Co-Head of Commercial Banking, notes that these plans reflect a “real sense of momentum” as companies navigate complex macro forces.

Small enterprises are tackling inflation, wage pressures and regulatory costs by bolstering cash reserves (47%), renegotiating supplier contracts (36%) and increasing spending on marketing and technology. Three in five small business leaders see artificial intelligence as essential for competitiveness within three years, with 61% expecting AI to streamline operations. Although only 27% now anticipate a recession in 2026—down from 39% in mid-2025—76% project revenue growth and 76% forecast higher profits, underscoring a blend of pragmatism and optimism at the Main Street level.

In parallel with its survey, JPMorgan Chase highlights the role of its Institute and newly formed Center for Geopolitics in helping clients navigate supply-chain shifts, rising global competition and cybersecurity threats. The Institute has produced over a decade of data-driven insights, while the Center’s initial papers have tackled topics such as America’s trade policy and international AI competition. Derek Chollet, Head of the Center for Geopolitics, emphasizes that these resources equip business leaders to align their short- and long-term strategies with evolving geopolitical landscapes, reinforcing JPMorgan Chase’s position as a strategic partner for corporate and nonprofit clients.