Martin Marietta Eyes Flat $1.62B Q4 Revenue, $4.99 EPS Forecast After Prior 10.5% Revenue Miss

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Martin Marietta missed revenue expectations by 10.5% last quarter, reporting $1.85 billion and cutting full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance significantly. Analysts forecast flat $1.62 billion Q4 revenue with $4.99 adjusted EPS, while peers Carlisle and Sherwin-Williams surpassed top-line estimates and saw share gains.

1. Expected Q4 Results

Analysts project Q4 revenue of $1.62 billion, flat year-on-year, and adjusted earnings of $4.99 per share. This compares with a 1.5% revenue gain in the same quarter of last year, signaling a potential slowdown in growth momentum.

2. Previous Quarter Performance

In the prior quarter, the company reported $1.85 billion in revenue, up 12.4% year-on-year but 10.5% below consensus estimates. Management also lowered full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance after slower project completions and softer demand trends.

3. Peer Comparisons

Carlisle Building Materials posted flat Q4 revenue, beating estimates by 1.4% and rallying 11.1% on the release. Sherwin-Williams delivered 5.6% revenue growth, topping forecasts by 0.8% and lifting its shares by 1.4%, setting a higher bar for Martin Marietta.

4. Market Sentiment and Price Targets

Building products stocks have risen an average 8.2% over the past month, with Martin Marietta up 4.7%. Analysts maintain an average price target of $685.63, slightly below the current trading level of $695.81, indicating modest upside expectations.

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