‘Melania’ Documentary Opens at $7M But Leaves Amazon $68M Shortfall
Amazon's documentary 'Melania' grossed $7M its opening weekend but faces a $68M deficit against its $75M combined acquisition and marketing cost, underscoring profit challenges in theatrical ventures. The company will discontinue its Amazon One palm-scanning in June while preserving Just Walk Out technology at third-party locations ahead of its Feb. 5 Q4 earnings.
1. Hyperscaler AI Infrastructure Spending Drives Parabolic Outlook
Analysts highlight that hyperscale cloud providers are on track to collectively boost AI infrastructure capital expenditures by over 25% year-over-year in 2026, funneling an estimated $100 billion into new data-center build-outs, custom GPU procurement and networking upgrades. Amazon Web Services (AWS) is expected to represent roughly one-third of that total, increasing its AI-related capex budget by approximately 30% versus 2025. Industry observers argue that AWS’s aggressive investment cadence—combined with its planned roll-out of in-house Trainium GPU instances this quarter—sets the stage for a potential parabolic lift in Amazon’s enterprise cloud bookings when the company reports Q4 results on Feb. 5.
2. ‘Melania’ Documentary Exposes $68 Million Gap to Profitability
Amazon MGM Studios paid $40 million for the theatrical rights to Brett Ratner’s ‘Melania’ and poured an additional $35 million into marketing, including prime-time NFL ad buys and a high-profile Las Vegas Sphere placement. The documentary opened in over 1,700 U.S. theaters and grossed an estimated $7 million in its first weekend—well above the $2–5 million forecast—but early international roll-outs have underwhelmed, with the U.K. contributing just under $45,000 from 155 screens and Italy adding under $8,000 from 94 venues. With production, acquisition and promotional costs totaling $75 million and Rotten Tomatoes critics’ approval sitting below 10%, Amazon faces a shortfall of roughly $68 million before factoring in streaming or ancillary revenues.
3. Retail Tech and Partnership Realignments Signal Strategic Refocus
Amazon confirmed it will discontinue its Amazon One palm-scanning service this June but will continue to offer Just Walk Out cashier-less technology to third-party operators, emphasizing software over biometric hardware. Meanwhile, luxury retailer Saks announced it will end its years-long partnership with Amazon’s marketplace, citing strategic misalignment and a desire to protect brand equity. These moves follow a broader corporate initiative to streamline operating costs—shown by over 2,000 core product and engineering roles eliminated in Washington state—and redirect investment toward proprietary automation tools and higher-margin business segments.
4. Q4 Earnings Preview and Valuation Considerations
Wall Street consensus projects Amazon’s Q4 revenue to exceed $200 billion, driven by mid-teens growth in AWS revenue and a rebound in e-commerce operating margins approaching 5%. Analysts forecast full-year 2025 operating income growth north of 20% but caution that heavy R&D and infrastructure spending will temper free cash flow generation. At current multiples—around 16x forward EV/EBITDA—Amazon trades at a modest discount to other hyperscalers. Investors will scrutinize guidance for capex intensity in 2026, the pace of AWS margin expansion and any updates on operating efficiencies gained through AI-driven tools.