Merck Withdraws from $30B Revolution Talks as Institutions Rebalance Stakes

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Merck ended acquisition talks with Revolution Medicines after failing to agree on valuation for a deal estimated at around $30 billion, though discussions may resume with AbbVie also in the running. Institutional investors reshuffled positions, with Cullen Frost selling 17,082 shares and Charles Schwab boosting its stake by 4.6 million shares.

1. Merck Withdraws from Acquisition Talks with Revolution Medicines

Over the weekend, Merck & Co. officially stepped back from its pursuit of clinical-stage biotech Revolution Medicines after failing to reach an agreement on valuation. According to people familiar with the discussions, Merck had been considering a takeover that could have valued the oncology specialist at roughly $30 billion. While sources indicate talks may resume, the decision underscores Merck’s disciplined approach to deal size despite intense competition for RAS-pathway assets.

2. Institutional Share Movements Highlight Confidence in Core Business

In the latest regulatory filings, Charles Schwab Investment Management increased its stake in Merck by 9.4%, adding 4.6 million shares to bring its total holdings to 53.9 million. DLD Asset Management and Norges Bank each initiated new positions valued at approximately $2.9 billion. Meanwhile, Cullen/Frost Bankers reduced its position by 7.0%, selling 17,082 shares. Collectively, institutional investors now control over 76% of Merck’s outstanding stock, reflecting broad confidence in the company’s long-term prospects.

3. Q4 Earnings and Dividend Raise Signal Strong Cash Generation

Merck reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.94, falling short of consensus by $0.14, but still delivering a 29.6% net margin and a return on equity exceeding 44%. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share, marking a 4.9% increase from the prior payout and equating to a 3.1% annualized yield. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.77 and a current ratio of 1.66, Merck’s balance sheet remains well-positioned to support ongoing R&D investments and shareholder distributions.

4. Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Increases Reflect Bullish Outlook

In recent weeks, eight research firms have raised their view on Merck, with BMO Capital Markets upgrading to ‘Outperform’ and lifting its target from $82 to $130. Goldman Sachs, Scotiabank and Bank of America each boosted their targets into the $120–$135 range, citing momentum in oncology sales and strong pipeline catalysts. Despite two sell ratings, the consensus from MarketBeat data remains a ‘Hold’ with an average target of $114.20, implying upside potential of more than 5% from current levels.

Sources

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