Meta Forecasts 25.5% Revenue Growth and $115–135B Capex for 2026
JP Morgan assigned Meta an Overweight rating with a $825 2026 price target, forecasting 25.5% revenue growth and GAAP expenses of $162–169B plus $115–135B capex in 2026. Meta will cut 1,500 Reality Labs jobs after the division lost $2.207B in 2025, with losses projected to peak at $19.7B in 2026.
1. Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Provide Momentum
Meta Platforms reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $59.893 billion, a 24 percent year-over-year increase that surpassed consensus estimates by more than $1 billion. Earnings per share rose 11 percent to $8.88, also beating analyst forecasts. These results underscore robust ad demand and improved monetization through AI-driven targeting, setting the stage for accelerated top-line growth in 2026.
2. Reality Labs Restructuring Curtails Mounting Losses
The metaverse division incurred a $2.207 billion operating loss in 2025, up slightly from $2.146 billion in 2024. To rein in these deficits, Meta Platforms announced the elimination of 1,500 Reality Labs positions and the closure of three VR game studios. Savings from these actions will be reallocated toward the company’s smart glasses and wearables initiatives, reflecting a strategic pivot to more promising hardware opportunities.
3. Massive AI Infrastructure Investment Underpins Long-Term Growth
Meta Platforms guided 2026 GAAP expenses of $162 billion to $169 billion, representing 38 percent to 44 percent growth, alongside capital expenditures estimated between $115 billion and $135 billion. Net property, plant and equipment grew 45 percent in 2025 to $98 billion, driven by servers and networking assets. Management expects operating income to exceed 2025 levels despite a meaningful step-up in infrastructure spending to support AI integration across its platforms and devices.
4. Analyst Upgrades Signal Confidence in AI-Led Expansion
JPMorgan analysts maintained an Overweight rating on Meta Platforms, forecasting 25.5 percent revenue growth in 2026 and 17 percent in 2027. Their research highlights substantial headroom for AI-powered ad gains and projects Reality Labs losses peaking at $19.7 billion in 2026 before tapering. Investor focus will center on sustained revenue acceleration beyond the first quarter, the emergence of new monetization channels and progress on large-language-model deployments.