Meta Platforms is set to report Q4 results Wednesday, with consensus revenue estimates near $58.4 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, and EPS expectations around $8.17. While analysts at Bank of America and Visible Alpha anticipate upside from robust ad sales, investors are closely watching the company’s AI capital expenditures and operating spending. Meta raised its full-year 2025 capex guidance to $70–72 billion and signaled that 2026 expenditures could exceed $100 billion as it builds out data centers and custom AI chips. A larger-than-expected expense forecast could temper earnings growth, even if topline momentum remains intact.

Meta’s core ad business continues to exhibit strength, driven by improvements in AI ranking systems that boost user engagement and advertiser ROI. In Q3, ad revenue grew roughly 26% year-over-year, and management expects similar tailwinds to carry into Q4. Wall Street strategists highlight the rollout of AI-powered ad formats on Instagram and Threads, as well as tests of premium subscriptions with expanded AI features across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, as potential catalysts for incremental revenue streams beyond traditional advertising.

Options markets are pricing in an approximate 6% post-earnings stock swing in either direction, reflecting uncertainty over Meta’s spending trajectory and the market’s appetite for heavy AI investment. With all 21 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha maintaining buy ratings and an average price target implying over 25% upside, investors view any conservative capex outlook or stronger-than-expected ad performance as triggers for a positive re-rating of the shares.