Mexico's headline inflation continues acceleration in September
EWZ•Mexico's annual inflation accelerated to 3.45% in September from 3.26% in August, slightly below economists' 3.47% forecast. Monthly inflation rose 0.42%, while annual core inflation eased to 3.75%.
1. Inflation picks up
Consumer prices in Mexico rose 3.45% in the year through September, up from 3.26% in August and just below economists' 3.47% forecast. Prices rose 0.42% during September, compared with a 0.20% increase the prior month. Higher fruit and vegetable prices, particularly tomatoes and onions, mainly drove the headline increase.
2. Core inflation eases
Annual core inflation fell for an eighth consecutive month, reaching 3.75%, its lowest level since March 2025. The monthly core rate rose 0.20%, accelerating from 0.16% in August. Both annual measures remained within the central bank's 3% target, plus or minus one percentage point.
3. Rate decision context
Analysts at Banamex anticipate headline inflation rising toward 3.9% by the end of 2026 as agricultural inflation gradually increases, while they expect core inflation to trend slightly down toward 3.7%. Banxico unanimously held its benchmark rate at 6.50% at its most recent meeting and said Mexican monetary policy does not automatically need to follow forecast U.S. Federal Reserve increases.
