A recent report indicates that Samsung has secured a major high-bandwidth memory (HBM) deal with Nvidia, highlighting that Micron no longer has the market to itself. While Micron’s stock has surged on investor excitement over its HBM technology, Samsung’s entry into this key AI data-center segment could pressure Micron’s pricing power. Samsung and SK Hynix together account for more than half of global HBM capacity, and Samsung’s new deal underscores the need for Micron to defend its customer relationships and technology roadmap as competition heats up.

In its fiscal Q2 earnings report, Micron smashed consensus estimates by guiding to approximately $18.7 billion in revenue versus a $14.3 billion consensus, and EPS of $8.42 against expectations of $4.71. Management raised its $100 billion HBM total addressable market (TAM) milestone timeline by two years to 2028 and reiterated a 40% compound annual growth rate for HBM sales through that year. These dynamics showcase Micron’s ability to exceed Wall Street’s estimates and expand margins despite the cyclical memory environment.

The industry-wide memory shortage has pushed Micron’s HBM contract book to full capacity through calendar 2026, with all volumes and pricing locked in before year-end. To capitalize on this imbalance, Micron plans to invest over $20 billion in capital expenditures in the current fiscal year—up 45% year-over-year—to expand its U.S. fabrication footprint. Projects include enlargements in Virginia and greenfield fabs in Idaho and New York, positioning Micron to meet sustained demand from AI-driven data-center customers.

Despite a more than 160% share appreciation since September 2025, Micron still trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 12, well below the technology-sector average. Analysts project earnings growth of roughly 50% annually over the next few years, driven by higher memory prices and robust AI adoption. With a low forward multiple and contracted revenues secured for 2026, Micron’s valuation suggests further upside, assuming the memory-market tightness persists and new capacity ramps smoothly.