Micron Sells Out 2026 HBM Inventory, Q1 Revenue Soars 57%
Micron Technology is sold out of high-bandwidth memory inventory through 2026 with $13.6B in Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue (up 57% YoY) and projected gross margin expansion from 57% to 68% next quarter, leveraging AI-driven supply-demand imbalances for pricing power. Its forward P/E of 12x remains below the tech average.
1. Complete Sell-Through of 2026 Production
Micron Technology has secured commitments for its entire high-bandwidth memory output through calendar 2026, according to its most recent guidance. This backlog reflects unprecedented demand from leading AI data-center operators and advanced computing customers. The company has negotiated multiyear contracts with top GPU and AI-chip developers, ensuring full utilization of its expanded fabrication capacity and providing strong revenue visibility for the next 18 months.
2. Record First-Quarter Results and Margin Expansion
In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Micron reported revenue of $13.6 billion, up 57% year-over-year, driven primarily by surging sales of HBM and enterprise DRAM products. Gross margin for the quarter reached 57%, benefitting from higher average selling prices and operational efficiencies in new Virginia and Idaho facilities. Management projects further expansion to 68% gross margin in the second quarter, reflecting ongoing pricing power and favorable product mix.
3. Supply–Demand Imbalance Bolsters Pricing Power
The global market for high-bandwidth memory is forecast to grow at a 40% compound annual rate through 2028, with total addressable value exceeding $100 billion. Micron’s production remains constrained relative to skyrocketing AI-related consumption, enabling the company to raise prices by double-digit percentages in recent contract renewals. This persistent shortfall underpins a robust pricing environment and supports sustained free cash flow generation.
4. Prudent Capital Deployment and Attractive Valuation
Over the past two years, Micron has returned $2.7 billion to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends, while earmarking $20 billion in capital expenditures for new U.S. manufacturing sites. Despite a more than 260% share-price appreciation over the past twelve months, the company trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 12x—well below the average for leading technology peers—suggesting room for further upside if growth targets are met.