Micron’s Shares Slide 13% Despite $33.5B Guidance and $25B Capex Plan
Micron’s most recent quarter delivered triple year-over-year revenue growth, record gross margins above 80% and guidance for $33.5 billion revenue with 81% margins next quarter. Shares are down 13% as investors question margin sustainability given a planned FY26 capex surge to $25 billion and Samsung’s vertical integration in AI memory.
1. Record Quarterly Performance
Micron reported triple year-over-year revenue growth in its latest quarter, achieving gross margins above 80%—the highest in its history—and guided for $33.5 billion in next quarter revenue with margins expanding to 81%. Despite robust top-line and margin strength, shares fell 13% after the report.
2. Rising Capex Pressure
The company raised its FY26 capex forecast to over $25 billion from $13.8 billion in FY25 to meet AI-driven demand and ramp HBM4 production. This surge in spending, including new U.S. advanced packaging fabs and reliance on external foundries for logic base dies, raises concerns about near-term free cash flow and margin durability.
3. Samsung’s Integration Challenge
Samsung’s fully integrated model—designing, fabricating and stacking HBM in-house—poses a competitive threat by offering turnkey AI memory solutions with a structural margin edge. Samsung’s expanding foundry business and recent AI manufacturing contracts underscore its growing influence and pressure on Micron’s market share.