Microsoft Eyes $4.04 EPS and 38% Azure Growth as Stock Slides 20%

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Microsoft will report Q3 results after market close Wednesday with analysts forecasting $4.04 EPS and $81.46B revenue, while Azure revenue is seen rising 38.2%. The stock has fallen over 20% in six months as capacity constraints capped Azure growth at 38% last quarter.

1. Q3 Earnings Forecast and Segment Outlook

Microsoft is set to report fiscal Q3 results with consensus forecasts of $4.04 in earnings per share on $81.46 billion in revenue. Productivity and Business Processes and Intelligent Cloud segments are each expected to generate roughly $34.5 billion, while More Personal Computing revenue is forecast to decline about 5.4% to $12.6 billion.

2. Azure Growth and Capacity Constraints

Azure revenue is projected to increase about 38.2% year-over-year, mirroring the prior quarter’s 38% growth that fell short of a potential 40% due to data center capacity bottlenecks. Microsoft expects ongoing data center buildout and regional expansions to add AI processing capability toward the end of its fiscal 2026.

3. OpenAI Partnership Revision and Stock Reaction

Microsoft renegotiated its OpenAI agreement to eliminate revenue-sharing payments to the startup, while OpenAI retains model access and can license its technology to other cloud providers. Shares have dropped over 20% in the past six months as investors weighed capacity constraints, enterprise software demand risks and AI partnership changes.

Sources

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