Middle East war, high debt levels to dominate IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok
SPY•The Middle East war, energy supply disruption and rising debt are set to dominate this week’s IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok, with 18,000 people registered to attend. The IMF has signaled little change in its 3% global growth forecast for 2026, though some countries are expected to receive downgrades.
1. Economic strains mount
Finance officials will meet in Bangkok as the war with Iran, higher energy and fertilizer prices, and rising interest rates weigh on global growth. World Bank President Ajay Banga said the combination of diesel and fertilizer costs, a looming El Niño and debt pressures was creating challenges, while the Bank was not currently revising down its global forecasts.
2. Debt and growth outlooks
The IMF has signaled little change to its forecast for 3% global growth in 2026 and may raise its forecast for the following year slightly. It expects some downgrades, including for Ukraine and Gulf countries. Public debt is at its highest level since World War Two and is projected to exceed 100% of global GDP before 2030, the IMF says.
3. Energy and attendance
The Group of Seven agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves. More than 1 billion barrels have been released mainly from commercial inventories since the war began, but industry executives say accessible global oil storage is running low. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said 18,000 people had registered for the meetings; US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will not attend.
