MiddleGame Ventures says dollar reserve status holds as stablecoins re-platform global demand
TLT•Dollar reserve status still seen as intact near term
MiddleGame Ventures analysis says the dollar keeps reserve status near term, but its “exorbitant privilege” is eroding via higher term premia.
The report cites the 30-year Treasury at 5.21% versus the Fed policy rate at 3.5%-3.75% as evidence that long rates have decoupled from policy.
IMF COFER data show the dollar reserve share rose to 57.1% in Q1 2026, while central banks shifted from yen toward gold.
Stablecoins shift demand toward private dollar usage
The report flags a policy pivot from official to private dollar demand via regulated stablecoins under the GENIUS Act.
The stablecoin market is at USD 308 billion, and Tether holds about USD 141 billion of Treasury exposure, recircling balances into T-bills.
