Milliman Finds 9% 2025 MA Cost Savings, V28 Risk Model Cuts Revenue 4%

UNHUNH

UnitedHealth released two Milliman studies estimating 2025 Medicare Advantage costs will be 9% lower than traditional Medicare, saving $117 per member each month. The analysis credits managed care efficiency and notes the CMS V28 risk model will reduce MA revenue by about 4% versus V24.

1. Senate Judiciary Committee Findings Raise Compliance Questions

A bipartisan Senate Judiciary Committee investigation, based on a review of more than 50,000 pages of internal UnitedHealth Group documents, concluded that the insurer deployed an array of aggressive strategies to inflate Medicare Advantage diagnoses. According to the report, UnitedHealth nurses conducted in-home visits proactively seeking new condition codes, the company offered financial incentives to thousands of physicians for additional diagnoses, and AI-driven tools scanned electronic medical records for uncoded ailments—some of which lacked full clinical confirmation. These actions, the committee asserted, boosted federal Medicare Advantage payments by tens of millions of dollars annually.

2. UnitedHealth Disputes Characterizations and Affirms Compliance

UnitedHealth Group has publicly contested the report’s characterization of its practices, stating it ‘‘operates in full compliance with all Medicare Advantage rules and regulations’’ and that diagnostic submissions undergo rigorous clinical review. Company executives emphasize that revenue adjustments from the CMS V28 risk-adjustment model reform reduced Medicare Advantage revenue by approximately 4% compared with the prior V24 framework, underscoring UnitedHealth’s broader reinvestment into supplemental benefits such as dental, vision and hearing coverage.

3. Independent Milliman Analysis Highlights Cost Savings

In parallel, two independent actuarial studies by Milliman—commissioned by UnitedHealth—estimate that, on a 2025 basis, Medicare Advantage costs the federal government approximately 9% less than traditional Medicare. Milliman’s base model shows traditional Medicare government outlays at roughly $1,234 per member per month versus $1,117 for Medicare Advantage, a differential equating to more than $1,400 in annual savings per enrollee. The managed-care structure is credited with generating $63 billion in additional annual value to beneficiaries through lower premiums, reduced cost-sharing, and enhanced supplemental benefits.

4. Impact on Investors and Market Reaction

Following publication of the Senate report, UnitedHealth’s shares declined 2.51% on the first trading day, reflecting investor concern over potential regulatory scrutiny and reputational risk. Analysts note that any substantive enforcement action by CMS or the Department of Justice could materially affect Medicare Advantage revenue growth, which accounted for more than half of UnitedHealth’s operating income last year. Conversely, the Milliman findings may bolster long-term investor confidence by demonstrating sustained cost efficiencies and market traction in a segment serving over 34 million Americans.

Sources

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