Mobileye Cuts Revenue Forecast Citing EV Production Slowdown

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Mobileye forecasts annual revenue below Wall Street expectations, citing slower electric-vehicle production weighing on demand for its driver assistance technology. The lowered outlook underscores risks to its top-line growth tied to EV industry headwinds.

1. Q4 Earnings Miss and Revenue Beat

Mobileye reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.06 for the fourth quarter, falling short of analyst expectations of $0.24, while generating revenue of $446 million versus consensus forecasts of $431.85 million. Quarterly revenue declined 9% year-over-year, driven primarily by an 11% reduction in EyeQ system-on-chip volumes as Tier 1 customers worked down elevated inventory levels.

2. Margin Pressure and Expense Trends

Adjusted operating margin compressed sharply to 9% from 21% in the year-ago period, reflecting higher operating expenses on a lower revenue base and a less favorable product mix. Non-GAAP gross margin narrowed by 176 basis points to 67%, impacted by increased per-unit costs on certain EyeQ processors and amortization of intangible assets on reduced sales volumes.

3. 2026 Revenue Guidance Exceeds Consensus

For fiscal 2026, Mobileye provided revenue guidance of $1.9 billion to $1.98 billion, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.87 billion and implying potential year-over-year growth of up to 5%. The company also expects adjusted operating income in a range of $170 million to $220 million, incorporating the planned acquisition of Mentee Robotics in the first quarter.

4. Robust Long-Term Pipeline and Strategic Partnerships

At year-end 2025, Mobileye’s eight-year expected automotive revenue pipeline reached $24.5 billion, up 42% since 2022, fueled by follow-on ADAS awards with all top-10 OEMs and new Surround ADAS design wins. Upcoming high-volume programs include the deployment of EyeQ6 processors in a major U.S. automaker’s software-defined vehicle platform. Additionally, Volkswagen Autonomous Mobility confirmed plans to launch commercial robotaxi services in six cities by 2027, supporting fleet deployments backed by Mobileye’s safety-driver removal roadmap.

Sources

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