Goldman Sachs Unveils $12 Target as Mobileye Q4 EPS Misses but Revenue Beats
Goldman Sachs set a $12 price target for Mobileye, implying 14.2% upside after Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.06 missed forecasts. Q4 revenue of $446M beat estimates despite a 9% decline in EyeQ volumes, and FY2026 revenue guidance of $1.90–1.98B surpasses the $1.87B consensus.
1. Fourth-Quarter Earnings Fall Short of Expectations
Mobileye reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.06 for the quarter ended December 27, 2025, missing analyst forecasts of $0.24. Net revenue came in at $446 million, topping the consensus estimate of $431.85 million but representing a 9% decline from the prior year. The year-over-year drop was driven by an 11% decrease in EyeQ system-on-chip volumes, which the company attributed to tighter inventory positions at key Tier 1 customers.
2. Margin Compression Reflects Higher Costs and Investment
GAAP gross margin contracted to 45%, down from 49% a year earlier, primarily due to intangible asset amortization on a smaller revenue base and a shift in product mix toward higher-cost EyeQ variants. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin eased to 67% from 69%. Adjusted operating margin narrowed sharply to 9%, compared with 21% in Q4 2024, as Mobileye increased R&D and sales investments while absorbing the effects of lower volumes.
3. 2026 Revenue and Profit Guidance Exceeds Street Estimates
For the fiscal year ending December 26, 2026, Mobileye projects total revenue between $1.90 billion and $1.98 billion, above the analyst consensus of $1.87 billion and implying up to 5% growth. The company also expects adjusted operating income of $170 million to $220 million, reflecting its confidence in scaling core ADAS platforms and capturing incremental robotaxi deployments under development with lead automaker partners.
4. Robust Future Pipeline and Strategic Expansion
At year-end 2025, Mobileye’s eight-year expected automotive revenue pipeline reached $24.5 billion, a 42% increase since 2022, driven by follow-on ADAS awards with all top-10 OEMs and two new customer wins. The company secured a high-volume Surround ADAS program with a major U.S. automaker, projecting 19 million EyeQ6 processor units across multiple vehicle segments. Additionally, Mobileye agreed to acquire Mentee Robotics in Q1 2026 to extend its Physical AI portfolio into humanoid robotics, complementing its autonomous driving roadmap.