Moderna Raises 2025 Revenue Forecast to $1.9B, Boosts Expense Outlook

MRNAMRNA

Moderna expects 2025 revenue of approximately $1.9 billion, $100 million above the midpoint of its $1.6–$2 billion guidance. It also raised its 2025 GAAP operating expense outlook by $200 million to $5–$5.2 billion and projects year-end cash of about $8.1 billion, including a $0.6 billion term-loan drawdown.

1. 2025 Revenue Guidance Exceeds Midpoint

Moderna projects 2025 product sales of approximately $1.9 billion, exceeding the midpoint of its prior $1.6 billion to $2 billion range by roughly $100 million. This forecast places the company near the upper quartile of its revenue guidance, reflecting steady demand for its authorized mRNA-based vaccines and pipeline candidates expected to contribute incremental sales through late-stage clinical readouts and potential regulatory approvals.

2. Increased Operating Expense Outlook

The company has raised its 2025 GAAP operating expense estimate by $200 million, now targeting a range of $5 billion to $5.2 billion. This revision reflects expanded investments in manufacturing capacity expansion across its Swiss and U.S. sites, accelerated R&D spending on respiratory and immuno-oncology programs, and higher clinical trial activity that counters cost containment measures implemented earlier in the year.

3. Strong Year-End Cash Position After Financing

Moderna forecasts a year-end 2025 cash and short-term investments balance of approximately $8.1 billion, inclusive of a $600 million drawdown from its newly established $1.5 billion term loan facility. This financing provides non-dilutive liquidity to support late-stage trials, global supply chain resilience, and potential business development transactions without immediate equity issuance.

4. Solid Growth Outlook for 2026

Looking beyond 2025, Moderna reaffirms expectations for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, driven by scaling of next-generation seasonal respiratory vaccines, anticipated label expansions for its cytomegalovirus candidate, and initial contributions from in-house oncology mRNA constructs. The company’s confidence in double-digit growth underscores its transition from pandemic-era volumes toward a diversified product portfolio.

Sources

PRB