Moderna Seen Posting $2.60 EPS Loss on $661M Q4 Revenue
Moderna is forecast to report a Q4 loss of $2.60 per share on $661.4 million in revenue, marking a 4% wider EPS loss and a 31.5% revenue decline year-over-year. Analysts have raised consensus EPS estimates by 1.95% in the past month, driving a positive Earnings ESP of +3.16%.
1. Consensus Q4 Outlook
Moderna is expected to report a loss of $2.60 per share for the quarter ended December 2025, compared with a loss of $2.50 in the year-ago period. Revenue forecasts stand at $661.4 million, a 31.5% decrease from Q4 2024, reflecting reduced product sales and collaboration income.
2. Analyst Estimate Revisions
Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.95% higher, indicating analysts’ incremental optimism. This upward revision suggests improved revenue visibility or cost controls shaping expectations ahead of the February 13 release.
3. Earnings ESP and Beat Probability
Moderna’s Earnings ESP sits at +3.16%, as the Most Accurate Estimate exceeds the consensus. Combined with a Zacks Rank of 3, this metric implies a favorable probability that actual EPS will surpass consensus forecasts.
4. Historical Surprise Performance
Over the past four quarters, Moderna has beaten EPS estimates on each occasion, including a +76.3% surprise in the last reported quarter when it posted a $0.51 loss versus a forecasted $2.15. This track record may bolster investor confidence ahead of the upcoming report.