Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Forecast to $90, Sees 50% Supply by September
MS•Morgan Stanley cut its Dated Brent price forecast for July-September from $100 to $90 per barrel and lowered its fourth-quarter outlook by $15 to $80. Analysts project oil supply restoration of 50% by September and 80% by December, citing logistical hurdles in the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
1. Forecast Revisions
Morgan Stanley reduced its Dated Brent forecast for July-September to $90 per barrel from an earlier $100 call and trimmed its fourth-quarter outlook by $15 to $80 per barrel following the US-Iran deal on the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Supply Restoration Timeline
Analysts estimate that oil supply could return to 50% of prewar levels by the end of September and reach 80% by December, noting that operational rules and safety protocols around the strait remain unresolved.
3. Market Implications
The forecast cuts reflect expectations of eased inflationary pressures as oil prices fell to lows not seen since early March, with implications for Federal Reserve rate decisions and MS’s energy research services.
