Morgan Stanley Delays Fed-Cut Forecasts to Sep, Upgrades Intuit at 20x PE
Morgan Stanley now expects Fed rate cuts in September and December, versus its prior June and September forecasts following the March FOMC’s caution over persistent inflation. The bank’s analysts also elevated Intuit to its Top Pick list at 20x GAAP P/E, highlighting 17% Q2 revenue growth and robust product-cycle momentum.
1. Fed-Cut Forecast Revision
Morgan Stanley shifted its Fed rate cut projections to September and December, up from June and September, after the March FOMC meeting signaled that clear inflation progress is needed before policy easing. Analysts led by Michael Gapen cited Powell’s caution and rising oil prices as key factors delaying the first cut.
2. Intuit Top Pick Upgrade
Analyst Keith Weiss added Intuit to Morgan Stanley’s Top Pick list at a 20x GAAP P/E valuation, pointing to 17% Q2 revenue growth, 18% Global Business Solutions expansion and 21% Online Ecosystem gains. He highlighted robust Assisted Tax performance—TurboTax grew 12%—and sees the April-quarter report as a catalyst for potential FY26 estimate revisions.