Morgan Stanley Elevates Nvidia to Top Pick with $260 Target and 47% Upside

NVDANVDA

Morgan Stanley reinstated Nvidia as its top semiconductor pick, maintained an Overweight rating and set a $260 price target implying 47% upside. The firm highlighted Nvidia’s record $68.1B quarterly revenue, 75% data-center growth, 18x projected 2027 earnings multiple and over $660B in hyperscaler AI spending locked through 2026.

1. Analyst Upgrade

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore reinstated Nvidia as the firm’s top semiconductor pick, maintained an Overweight rating and established a $260 price target, reflecting a 47% upside from the prior close. Moore cited two quarters of flat stock performance against accelerating business fundamentals.

2. Robust Financial Performance

Nvidia reported record fiscal Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year, with data-center sales of $62.3 billion up 75%. Full-year fiscal 2026 revenue reached $215.9 billion, net income topped $120 billion and free cash flow totaled $97 billion, while Q1 guidance of $78 billion surpassed the $72.6 billion consensus.

3. Hyperscaler Spending and Contracts

Hyperscalers have committed over $660 billion to AI infrastructure in 2026 through three-year supply deals, many with full upfront payments. These long-term contracts are viewed as a durability signal that supports sustained GPU demand well beyond 2026.

4. Upcoming GTC Catalyst

Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference runs March 16–19, featuring Jensen Huang’s keynote and a detailed Vera Rubin platform roadmap. Moore expects this event to clarify Nvidia’s 2027 earnings trajectory and reinforce its full-stack ecosystem advantages over rivals.

Sources

FF