Morgan Stanley Flags 9–18 GW Power Deficit, Predicts 10× AI Leap by 2026
Morgan Stanley warns a 9–18 GW U.S. power shortfall by 2028 could constrain a 2026 AI breakthrough that scaling laws predict will double model intelligence with 10× compute. It predicts infrastructure financing and advisory revenue growth as clients repurpose Bitcoin mines into data centers and deploy turbines.
1. Forecast of AI Breakthrough
Morgan Stanley forecasts an AI model intelligence doubling in 2026 by applying 10× the compute to large language model training, citing robust scaling laws validated in recent lab research.
2. Projected Power Deficit and Infrastructure Constraints
The bank’s Intelligence Factory model projects a U.S. power shortfall of 9–18 gigawatts through 2028, creating a 12–25% energy deficit that is already driving firms to convert Bitcoin mining operations, deploy natural gas turbines and install fuel cells.
3. Impact on Financing and Advisory Revenues
Morgan Stanley expects increased infrastructure financing and advisory fees from data center lease deals under a 15-year, 15% yield “15-15-15” dynamic, as clients repurpose existing assets and invest in power solutions to keep pace with surging compute demand.