Micron Targeted for 48% Earnings Growth; Q1 Revenue Jumps 57%
Analysts at Morgan Stanley rank Micron Technology as their top 2026 semiconductor pick, forecasting 48% annual earnings growth on severe DRAM and NAND shortages while valuing shares at 28x earnings. Q1 FY26 revenue rose 57% YoY to $13.6B, with Micron selling out its 2026 HBM supply.
1. Morgan Stanley Taps Micron as Top 2026 Semiconductor Pick
Morgan Stanley analysts led by Joseph Moore have singled out Micron Technology as their preferred semiconductor stock for 2026, citing the most severe DRAM and NAND supply shortages in three decades. They forecast Micron’s earnings will compound at an annual rate of 48% over the next three years, outpacing both Nvidia and Broadcom, and view its current valuation at roughly 28 times forward earnings as inexpensive relative to its growth trajectory.
2. Market Share Gains in DRAM and HBM
Micron has been steadily gaining share in both DRAM and NAND segments, with its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) business alone adding ten percentage points of market share over the past year. While Samsung and SK Hynix have ceded ground amid tight industry capacity, Micron’s momentum in data-center memory positions it to capture elevated pricing and volume as hyperscale customers expand AI deployments.
3. Financial Outlook and Capital Investment
With tight supply driving higher memory prices, Wall Street expects Micron’s non-GAAP earnings per share to climb by nearly threefold in fiscal 2026, supported by a 57% revenue increase in the first quarter. Management has earmarked roughly $20 billion for capital expenditures this year—a 45% rise from the prior period—to expand DRAM and NAND production capacity and meet robust demand from AI and data-center customers.