CFRA senior auto analyst Garrett Nelson highlighted Tesla’s uneven track record heading into its Jan. 28 Q4 report, noting that the electric vehicle maker has missed consensus EPS estimates in four of the last eight quarters. For Q4, Wall Street models project deliveries of roughly 480,000 vehicles, modestly below Q3’s 484,507 units, while gross margins are expected to slip from 18.2% to closer to 17%, pressured by intensified competition in China and the phase-out of federal tax credits.

Investors will also scrutinize Elon Musk’s self-driving road map after repeated timing shifts. In July he forecast robotaxi service in eight to ten metro areas by year end; as of January service with safety drivers operates only in Austin and San Francisco. Cybercab production was slated to start in Q2 of next year, yet Musk recently conceded early output will be “agonizingly slow,” raising questions about regulatory approvals keeping pace with manufacturing.

With headline results likely to land near consensus, forward commentary will carry greater weight. Shareholders are especially focused on Tesla’s 2026 vehicle guidance, battery cost trajectory and the pace of energy storage deployments—which rose 46% year-over-year to a record 6.4 gigawatt-hours in Q3. Analysts warn that cautious margin outlooks could trigger volatility, while an optimistic cost-reduction roadmap or stronger energy business growth may stabilize sentiment.