NAB expects Australian interest rates have peaked after five Reserve Bank of Australia increases this year, but says higher-than-forecast inflation could prompt further tightening as growth weakens.
NAB expects Australian interest rates have peaked after five RBA increases this year, with policy restrictive enough to slow economic activity. It said higher-than-forecast inflation could still trigger further tightening, despite weakening growth, negative business conditions and fading household spending momentum. November’s rate increase passed 6-3, compared with a unanimous 9-0 vote in September.
NAB said slower investment in AI infrastructure could reduce excess-capacity risks, while US tariffs are likely to persist despite the changed congressional balance.
