NAGA sees 50% chance of risk-off markets in Q4 2026
SPY•NAGA assigned a 50% probability to risk-off markets in Q4 2026, which it said could drive equities lower. It identified the Fed’s December 9 decision as the quarter’s key event and cited a 5.29% US 10-year Treasury yield and narrow S&P 500 participation.
1. Quarterly outlook
NAGA’s Q4 2026 market outlook assigns a 50% probability to a risk-off environment that could drive equities lower. It said a sustained US Dollar Index break above 102.50 would confirm further gains, putting gold, silver and risk assets under pressure.
2. Rates and participation
The outlook expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates in October before raising them in December, with its December 9 decision the quarter’s key event. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 85 basis points in Q3 to 5.29%, while only 46% of S&P 500 members traded above their 200-day average in early October.
