Nasdaq 100’s ten-year returns now exceed those of the 1920s Dow and 1950s S&P 500 and are approaching 1990s Nasdaq levels. Current market gains are backed by earnings growth, making this AI-driven surge the most logical bubble in history with winners like Google potentially leading the buildout.
Over the past decade, the Nasdaq 100 has delivered total returns surpassing the Dow’s 1920s rally and the S&P 500’s 1950s gains, now closing in on the performance seen in the late-1990s tech boom. This sustained climb highlights unprecedented investor enthusiasm for stocks tied to AI and technology.
A bubble typically reflects a disconnect between present fundamentals and future outcomes, yet today’s rally is underpinned by corporate earnings growth keeping pace with rising prices. That alignment has led analysts to label this surge the most logical bubble ever, as profits and valuations remain linked.
Market participants have rotated through potential leaders—from early doubts about Google to surges in software and chip names—yet hyperscale platforms like Google continue to benefit. With government scrutiny low, these giants are best positioned to capitalize on AI infrastructure and services.
Unlike past booms, weaker software and mid-cap technology firms are declining more swiftly, sharpening focus on which companies will sustain momentum. The speed of underperformance among non-hyperscale players underscores the market’s hunt for durable AI beneficiaries.
